Investment ViewPoint August 2011

Every week in Investment ViewPoint: Comment we post timely analysis and opinion on key topics and investment themes, covering market, economic and political events, that could impact your trading decisions.

 

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Inflation & Deflation

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30 August 2011

The week ahead – market diary

In a week shortened by the Bank Holiday on Monday, there are few blockbuster company results expected. Thursday will see Punch Taverns and Spirit Pub Group issue their first trading updates as separate entities since the two split up.

Here is this week’s selection of companies reporting:

 



23 August 2011

International markets - Weekly Movers

International markets remained at the forefront of the news agenda last week as the continuing concerns over the prospect of sovereign debt defaults in the Euro zone dominated events.

From the perspective of international markets’ performance, Egypt was the top performer for the week, posting a rise of 5.44%.  Belgium placed second, up 4.81% over the past seven days, with Indonesia in third spot after a gain of 4.75%.  The biggest loss of the week was in Denmark, down 1.85%, followed by Taiwan, down 1.96%, with Ireland having the third biggest loss of 2.19%.

From the perspective of individual international stocks top performer for the week was gaming giant Nintendo (NTO:BE), up 13%.  Behind Nintendo was Nokia (NYSE:NOK), posting a gain of 8.5% and in third place China Coal (TSXV:CKO), up 8.5%. 

In contrast the biggest faller for the week was Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ) with a drop of 27% following news it was to exist the smartphone and tablet market and refocus its business around services and software aimed at business customers.

To trade in international equities or find out more about the latest international market news and movements, login to International Trader. If you do not yet have an International Trader account, find out more.

You should ensure that you are aware of all the potential risks and downsides before investing overseas. These investments can fall in value. You may get back less than you invested. You also need to bear in mind that international investing comes with a currency risk. Fluctuations in currency could have a negative impact on the value of your investment

23 August 2011

The week ahead – market diary

After a brief lull, the flow of company results is starting to increase again, with big names such as Admiral, Diageo, Petrofac, G4S, Antofagasta, Cairn, Wood Group, Serco, Tullow, WPP, BHP Billiton and Kazakhmys all set to report.


Here is this week’s selection of companies reporting:

 

16 August 2011

What a week

Last week saw one of the most volatile periods that global markets have experienced in recent times. In one day, there was a 7.5% swing in the FTSE 100 and it spent some time below 5000, before recovering to its current level of 5,300. The price of gold reached a record high of $ 1,814.95 per oz on 11 August.

Markets seem to have stabilised now as the noise surrounding Eurozone sovereign debt concerns and the S&P’s downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+ subsides a little. Login to our research centre to keep track of events as they happen.

8 August 2011

The US loses AAA rating – what does it mean for you?

UPDATED 10 August 2011 - During another volatile day in the markets yesterday, the FTSE 100 breached the psychological 5,000 points threshold, before rallying towards the close of the day and finishing at 5,164. In one day, the UK Index moved through 290 points from peak to trough.

Across the pond in the US, market events were just as dramatic, following an announcement from the Fed on interest rates, which they indicated will be maintained at current low levels until at least mid-2013.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) became the largest US cap stock yesterday, overtaking Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM). AAPL touched $343 billion while XOM dropped to $334bil. Just a few weeks ago, Exxon Mobil was valued at more than $50 billion more than Apple.

The FTSE 100 opened up on yesterday’s closing level and was still holding that position by 10am – watch this space as events unfold.


“As ‘shocks’ go, the announcement was simultaneously not very surprising and deeply shocking.”

At the end of a brutal week for global equities (the fourth worst week since 2008 at the height of the financial crisis), there was bad news for the US. On Friday evening, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) announced they would be downgrading US government bonds from AAA to AA+ (for the first time in US history).  

For many, the decision was not surprising, given that S&P issued a negative credit watch announcement on 14 July, which gave the US a 50% chance of downgrade over the next three months. However, in equal parts, the announcement is deeply shocking as yet another “unthinkable” financial event happens.

As to be expected, there is mixed opinion on what this means for the US and the world, over the short term and then the medium to long-term. The general view is that in the short term, market uncertainty will prevail, as well as a reduction in risk appetite and extreme market nervousness. This is an unprecedented event, which makes it hard to tell what might happen as a result.

From an investor perspective, the knee-jerk reaction might well be to default to the Yen, the Swiss Franc and to gold; traditional “safe havens” which have proved consistently popular in turbulent markets. At the same time, the US Dollar’s status as the global reserve currency will stand it in good stead; the Dollar and US debt will most likely remain in high demand. In 1998, when the Yen’s status was downgraded from AAA, the currency actually appreciated in the days after.

One thing is clear. Whatever the impact of events in the US, it does not detract from the severity of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Over the weekend, the European Central Bank agreed to intervene in the markets and support Italy and Spain, by purchasing bonds from both countries.

Many warn that the greatest threat to economic stability still lies in the Eurozone and that investors should proceed with caution when investing regionally.

What should I do?

As events continue to move at a rapid pace, investors should look to stay abreast of news coming from the US and closer to home on the continent.  You can login to read the research note published by Barclays Wealth on 8 August 2011 which assesses the impacts of the US downgrade.

Whether you see these latest market developments as a threat to your portfolio. or an investment opportunity, we are committed to providing you with the best trading service. login to your portfolio to trade in the UK market, or to access international markets through Barclays Stockbrokers International Trader.

Investments can fall as well as rise; you may get back less than you invested. You should ensure that you are aware of all the potential risks and downsides when investing overseas, including currency risk.

15 August 2011

International markets - Weekly Movers

International markets remained at the forefront of the news agenda last week as the reaction to the S&P’s downgrade of US credit from AAA to AA+, and the continuing concerns over the prospect of sovereign debt defaults in the Euro zone, dominated events.
From the perspective of international markets’ performance, Peru was the top performer for the week, posting a rise of 2.78%.  Morocco placed second, up 0.74% over the past seven days, with Canada in third spot after a gain of 0.59%.  For the second week in a row, negative performers were far easier to find.  Propping up the chart with the biggest loss of the week was Russia, down 15.13%, followed by Turkey, down 14.62%, with Pakistan having the third biggest loss of 12.58%.

From the perspective of individual international stocks top performer for the week was US internet search engine firm Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO), up 15.7%.  Behind Yahoo was French fashion house Hermes (Euronext: RMS), posting a gain of 11.3%.    In third place was News Corporation (NASDAQ: NWS, ASX: NWS), up 10.6%. 

In contrast the biggest faller for the week was Bank of China (SEHK: 2388, OTCBB: BHKLY) with a drop of 15.8%.  US financial giant Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) posted a loss of 15.6%, while China’s Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (SEHK: 1171, NYSE: YZC) fell 14.3%.

To trade in international equities or find out more about the latest international market news and movements, login to International Trader. If you do not yet have an International Trader account, find out more.

You should ensure that you are aware of all the potential risks and downsides before investing overseas. These investments can fall in value. You may get back less than you invested. You also need to bear in mind that international investing comes with a currency risk. Fluctuations in currency could have a negative impact on the value of your investment

8 August 2011

International markets - Weekly Movers

In what was an unprecedented week for global markets, the widespread equity sell off meant that good performers for the week were few and far between.  From the perspective of international markets, only one posted a positive return across the last seven days – the UAE Large Cap index saw a 2.74% rise.  After that, the next best performers were Indonesia and the Philippines, although both posted losses for the week, -0.45% and -0.9% respectively. 
With most markets posting a loss last week it was Sweden who sat at the foot of the table, down 15.21%.  Italy then followed with a loss of 13.62%, with Austria in third place, down 13.56%.

It was a fairly consistent story when looking at individual international stocks.  Top performer for the week was US credit card and payments giant MasterCard (NYSE: MA), who posted a gain of 7.7%.  Other top performers included US food and beverage conglomerate Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), up 1.4% and Brazilian beverages firm AmBev (NYSE: ABV) who posted a 1% gain.  Amongst the top fallers over the last seven days were France’s financial services firm SocGen (Euronext: GLE), down 21%, Germany’s materials and technology group ThyssenKrupp (FWB: TKA), down 20.3% and Swedish car manufacturer Volvo (OMX: VOLV B), down 19.7%.

To trade in international equities or find out more about the latest international market news and movements, login to International Trader. If you do not yet have an International Trader account, find out more.

You should ensure that you are aware of all the potential risks and downsides before investing overseas. These investments can fall in value. You may get back less than you invested. You also need to bear in mind that international investing comes with a currency risk. Fluctuations in currency could have a negative impact on the value of your investment

5 August 2011

Week Ahead: Standard Life, Greggs, InterContinental Hotels, TUI Travel

With the FTSE-100 falling nearly 200 points on Thursday it will be interesting to see how the markets react next week – will the sell off continue or will global policy makers step in an effort to halt the decline?
Meanwhile reporting season continues unabated with the insurance sector taking centre stage on Thursday with interim results due from Standard Life, while retailers and travel companies make up the other big reporting companies in the coming week.
Here is this week’s selection of companies reporting:


Monday

Ticker

Caledon Resources

LSE:CDN

Tuesday

 

Greggs

LSE:GRG

InterContinental Hotels Group

LSE:IHG

Wednesday

 

Dragon Oil

LSE:DGO

Thursday

 

Standard Life

LSE: SL.

Friday

 

Trinity Mirror

LSE:TNI


2 August 2011

International markets - Weekly Movers

Investors had to cast their gaze East last week to find the top three performing international markets, all of which were close neighbours hailing from the Pacific basin. Top performer was Thailand, who saw a gain of 3.3% across the seven days.  Hong Kong was close behind with a gain of 3.2% while Singapore was in third place, up 2.35%. 

European markets sat at the other end of the table.  Ireland was the worst performer with a loss of 4.88%, Italy finished a close second bottom, posting a loss of 4.86% and Austria was not far behind with a loss of 4.83%.

From an international stocks perspective, top performers for the week included Spain’s Telefonica (BMAD: TEF, Euronext: TFA, NYSE: TEF), up 7.1%, US leisure firm Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) up 6.6% and Aluminum Corporation of China (SEHK: 2600, NYSE: ACH) up 6.5%. Amongst the top fallers over the last seven days were Japan’s software giant Nintendo (Pink Sheets: NTDOY, FWB: NTO) down 17.5%, US industrial engineers Illinois Tool Works (NYSE: ITW), who fell 12.6% and Canada’s mining firm Goldcorp (TSX: G, NYSE: GG), down 11.2%

To trade in international equities or find out more about the latest international market news and movements, login to International Trader. If you do not yet have an International Trader account, find out more.

You should ensure that you are aware of all the potential risks and downsides before investing overseas. These investments can fall in value. You may get back less than you invested. You also need to bear in mind that international investing comes with a currency risk. Fluctuations in currency could have a negative impact on the value of your investment

29 July 2011

The week ahead – market diary

The end-quarter results season is fully in its stride, with trading updates expected from the high street banks, as well as reports from insurers and miners.

On top of that, there are some heavy-duty economic announcements, in the form of interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, while in the USA, all eyes will be on the first major economic indicator pertaining to July, the change in non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, the saga of negotiations over the raising of the US debt ceiling is likely to end on 2 August, the day that the USA is set to start running out of money as it will no longer be able to ask its international buddies to spare it a dime.

Here is this week’s selection of companies reporting:


Monday

Ticker

Sector

Hammerson

LSE:HMSO

Real Estate investment Trusts

HSBC

LSE:HSBA

Banking

Tuesday

 

 

Barclays

LSE:BARC

Banking

Xstrata

LSE: XTA

Mining

Wednesday

 

 

GlaxoSmithKline

LSE:GKN

Pharmaceuticals

Thursday

 

 

Randgold Resources Ltd.

LSE: RRS

Mining

Lloyds Banking

LSE:LLOY

Banking

Friday

 

 

Royal Bank of Scotland

LSE:RBS

Banking

 

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Investment ViewPoint: Analysis

2011 - The year of the international investor?

What would I look like if I had picked the best performing stocks in the US last year? Well…. I would like to surf and my footwear of choice would be ‘Crocs’.

 

Read The year of the international investor?

View Investment ViewPoint: Analysis archive



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